This has been the first year most New Zealanders caught the virus, with the government removing COVID-19 restrictions as it accepted it could no longer eliminate or suppress it, bringing flow-on effects for the health system.
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Amid the reopening of borders, the government moved too slowly to adapt immigration settings, bringing massive staffing shortfalls in key sectors and pain for business.
Perhaps most significantly, New Zealand also appears bound for recession due to over-stimulatory monetary settings in 2020 and 2021. It defied economic carnage earlier in the pandemic but the Reserve Bank is now reckoning with over-demand, raising the official cash rate to 4.25 per cent, the highest rate in 14 years.
These challenges have arrived during the key year for the government’s reform agenda, including controversial water, industrial relations and health reforms.
Ardern indicated 2023 would see a back-to-basics approach.
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“We have had as a government a lot on our agenda because there’s been a lot of issues,” she said.
“Going into 2023 we do need to make sure that we are totally focused. We prioritise and that we will be making sure that where we need to pare back, we will.”
That could spell the end of a number of projects, including a merger of its public broadcasters TVNZ and Radio NZ, a social insurance scheme, or a spate of infrastructure builds.
Ardern also told AAP in an interview last week her 2023 agenda included reducing government spending.
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The government is also poised for ministerial renewal, with a “handful” of ministers to announce forthcoming retirements this week ahead of a portfolio reshuffle earlier next year.
Missing from Ardern’s assessment of the by-election loss was what winning candidate Tama Potaka called the number one issue.
“Law and order and crime,” Potaka told Radio NZ.
Recent headlines have been dominated by a wave of so-called ram raids, with youths using stolen cars to bash their way into locked shops late at night to steal goods. That’s allowed opposition parties to accuse the government of going soft on crime and pledge stiffer penalties if elected.
“Every day I was on the electoral trail people were talking about incursions on their lives, whether its their business or [family] situations.”
Potaka said he imagined many Kiwis outside his seat were waiting for next year’s election to vote the same way.
“I anticipate there are a lot of people in New Zealand right now that will be looking at this result and saying ‘actually we want to take the country forward and the National party is the party to do that’.”
A 1News/Kantar poll published last week showed Labour falling 1 percentage point to 33 per cent support, five points behind National on 38 per cent. National’s ally the ACT Party climbed two points to 11 per cent support, which would give the pair a parliamentary majority if the results were replicated at the election.
Ardern remains the country’s most-preferred prime minister, on 29 per cent to National leader Christopher Luxon’s 23 per cent, but her rating has halved from more than 60 per cent in 2020.
AAP, Bloomberg
