The authorities had been slow to respond and deliberately avoided legitimising the protesters’ concerns until Wednesday afternoon when China’s National Health Commission acknowledged the “practical difficulties of the people”. Suddenly, the nation’s peak health body said for the first time that Omicron was not as severe as other strains, eliminating a key health justification for the government’s suppression measures.
Vice-Premier Sun Chunlan, the government’s chief COVID warrior, said it was time to shift strategies. Sun, who oversaw the world’s first lockdown in Wuhan in January 2020, did not once mention the zero-COVID doctrine that has defined her position since the first days of the pandemic.
Chinese Vice Premier Sun Chunlan, also the current chief COVID warrior, in 2018.Credit:AP
“As the Omicron variant becomes less pathogenic, more people get vaccinated and our experience in COVID prevention accumulates, our fight against the pandemic is at a new stage, and it comes with new tasks,” she said on Wednesday evening, referring to the ability of the virus to cause serious illness.
By Thursday, Chinese government-controlled media was running hot with research from a laboratory of virology at Wuhan University that showed “Omicron’s pathogenicity has dramatically decreased compared with the original strain of coronavirus and other variants”. The US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention published the same findings in January. The Imperial College London followed in March.
But after 10 months of plummeting confidence, growing financial strain, and the threat of political instability, the Chinese government said they were ready to consider another strategy. The country had just hit 40,000 new cases in a day.
“Time, and again it proves that protests in China work,” wrote Yaqiu Wang, a senior China researcher for Human Rights Watch who has been forced to leave the country.
“If you are willing to take the risk and stand up, you get what you want, at least some of it. The CCP is the biggest paper tiger, whose power rests in your fear. When you no longer fear, poof, it melts.”
In Chongqing, which recorded a 12-month high of 648 cases on Tuesday, officials said they would allow close contacts of infected people to quarantine at home. Guangzhou, which had notched up 1529 cases the previous day, said it would put an end to mass PCR testing and end lockdowns for half of its districts. Zhengzhou, the home of one of the world’s largest iPhone factories and the scene of some of the biggest protests against lockdown, followed suit.
“Most Chinese people are no longer afraid of being infected,” said one of Beijing’s top propagandists, Hu Xijin. “China may walk out of the shadow of COVID-19 sooner than expected.”
The markets responded, jumping by almost 2 per cent on the mainland and 4 per cent in Hong Kong. Despite the domestic turmoil, the value of stocks on the mainland and Hong Kong has grown by more than $3 trillion in November alone, indicating investors are more optimistic about China’s acceleration out of the pandemic than many of those on the ground.
An epidemic control worker walks by closed shops in an area in lockdown in Beijing on December 1.Credit:Getty Images
“The Chinese economy is not performing well now and as we can see, lots of shops are closed,” said a 70-year-old Wuhan retiree who asked not to be identified on Thursday.
“If this situation continues, young people will have no job and no income. If the country’s economy doesn’t grow, the government will have no revenue.”
The message from the top has not made its way down to all local officials. In Shanghai, on Thursday there were warnings to residents to prepare for the possibility of another lockdown. Video emerged of a local committee blocking the exit of one building with barbed wire. Jinzhou city in Liaoning province said it would keep pursuing a zero-COVID strategy and blamed other provinces for failing to execute the policy.
Mitul Kotecha, head of emerging markets at TD Securities, said the path ahead was riddled with difficulties.
“Any opening is still likely to be very slow and gradual to avoid pressuring the health system and unfortunately this will come at the expense of economic recovery in the months ahead,” he said.
“Despite protests, we don’t think the government is about to open the door to a quick easing of COVID restrictions given the lack of boosters to the elderly population, relatively low efficacy of China’s vaccines, and limited intensive care capacity.”
Just 60 per cent of the Chinese population aged over 80 has been vaccinated, leaving millions vulnerable to the disease. Health authorities have been reluctant to impose mandates on a population weary of inoculation after past scandals. On Thursday, Chinese finance news outlet Caixin reported that national authorities would push local administrators to drive that figure past 90 per cent.
“[We must] speed up vaccination, especially the vaccination of the elderly,” said Xia Gang, a National Health Commission official. “I hope that elderly friends will actively complete the vaccination as soon as possible to protect the health of themselves and their families.”
Former Chinese president Jiang Zemin, who has died aged 96, with former Australian prime minister John Howard.Credit:Mike Bowers
Xia spoke just hours before one of the country’s elder statesmen, former president Jiang Zemin, died. Three of China’s most significant periods of civil unrest have coincided with the death of one of its leaders: premier Zhou Enlai in 1967; Hu Yaobang in April 1989, when the Tiananmen Square protests began; and now Jiang, as the country’s citizens lash out against COVID-19 restrictions and in some quarters, against the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party and President Xi Jinping himself.
In the days after his death, Jiang’s cosmopolitan but controversial period in power was contrasted with Xi’s authoritarian rule. Chinese social media service Weibo was filled with tributes to Jiang on Thursday. “RIP, to you, and the era,” said one user, reflecting on China’s ascension to the World Trade Organisation and a decade of relatively liberal economic growth.
A protester in Wuzhen this week. Credit:Fairfax Media
In the historic town of Wuzhen, Zhejiang province, a young woman walked down the street. She covered her arms in chains and put black tape across her mouth while holding a blank white paper, a symbol of the growing “A4 revolution” that has condemned Xi’s censorship regime across China.
Official government websites and newspapers turned black and white in mourning for the 96-year-old, but across WeChat, pictures proliferated of Xi as “the only person in colour” – a phrase that when read aloud in Chinese sounds similar to “dictator”.
The most vocal members of this week’s protests have already been rounded up by state security, but many thousands more are still seething over a system they believe has failed to give them economic prosperity and stripped them of their human rights.
Wang Dan, one of the leaders of the Tiananmen Square protests, now based in the United States, gave them some advice this week.
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“It’s a long-term struggle,” he said. “There should be a rhythm. Retreat when you ought to, so you can advance again.”
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